NCAAF The Picks

Jim’s Week 11 Picks

Official Picks Record: 2-2-1

I have to start by addressing last week’s picks. First, let me say that a 2-2-1 record is not bad. However, the esteemed American philosopher Lebron James always taught me to #StriveForGreatness, so that is exactly what I’m going to do. This week has to get better because you can’t possibly pick any worse than i did last week; unless your name is Preston.  Sure Iowa beat Ohio state and Michigan State beat Penn State, but the upset of the week has to be Preston going 1-5 with his picks. Anyone who’s had the displeasure of knowing Preston would have bet the house on him going 0-6. I cannot guarantee that my picking record will be perfect from here on out. But i can guarantee that his record will be horrible. Don’t follow my picks, simply fade all of his and you’re guaranteed to get rich.

 

6.5 #9 Washington at Stanford
Washington thus far seems to be the class of the pac 12. An 8-1 record and a margin of victory that hasn’t fallen below 16 points at any point this season bode well for Friday’s matchup at Stanford. Stanford also appears to have hit a rough patch after almost dropping a game to a terrible Oregon State team, followed by a loss at Washington State last week. It is also important to note the Washington won last year’s matchup by 38 points.

 

+12.5 #21 Iowa at # 8 Wisconsin
Although Wisconsin remains undefeated, there are many maintain this team is not for real. Count me among those people. While Wisconsin may very well win this game, I have a hard time seeing a victory by 13 points. Iowa will be Wisconsin’s toughest test to date, and is coming off an impressive blowout victory against Ohio State. In addition to holding wins over Ohio State and Iowa State, Iowa has stuck with the best teams in the Big Ten all year. Close Losses to Michigan State and Penn State indicate that this team can at the very least hang with the best teams in the conference. I do not expect that change against a Wisconsin team that is probably the fourth or fifth best team in the Big Ten.

+17 #12 Michigan State vs #13 Ohio State
This is a difficult game to call. I have been telling people since the beginning of the year that Michigan State is a much improved team with Brian Lewerke at the helm. But even I didn’t see them beating Penn State last week. Another win against Ohio State would be unthinkable given the low expectations for Michigan State heading into the season. But it is difficult to predict how Ohio State will come out after a blowout upset loss at Iowa. 2 losses this early in the year show that this Ohio State team is clearly not Urban Meyer’s best. As such, it’d be tough to sell me that they’ll beat Mark Dantono”s squad by more than two touchdowns.

-6.5 #11 USC at Colorado

Colorado is 2-5 in conference and is coming off an 11 point loss at Arizona State. The very same Arizona State team that knocked off Colorado, was demolished at home by USC by 31 points the week prior. Colorado has struggled to stay .500 against mediocre opposition. Meanwhile USC’s loaded offense appears to be clicking scoring 48 and 49 points in back to back games. Colorado has let up less than 27 in conference play so I’m surprised the spread isn’t larger here. I would expect USC to win comfortably.

+2.5 West Virginia at Kansas State 

This is another game that I expect to be tightly contested. Although West Virginia was left out of the College Football Playoff rankings this week, they did creep back in to the AP poll at number 23, with a quality win over a ranked Iowa State team. At 6-3, their only losses have been to opponents in the top 17. West Virginia has, for the most part, taken care off business and beat the teams they were supposed to beat, because of their high powered offense lead by Will Grier. Kansas State on the other hand does not have a win against a team that is over .500. I expect another high scoring Big 12 game, with West Virginia ultimately coming out on top. Although West Virginia has struggled on the road, its hard for me not to pick an the objectively better team as 2.5 point underdogs.

-14 #2 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State

Kenny said last week in his picks that, “you don’t get rich by betting against Alabama”. While he is incredibly stupid, and couldn’t have been more wrong, that statement is very often true. Despite the fact that LSU hasn’t looked like themselves the past few seasons, they’ve generally played Alabama close. The same cannot be said for Mississippi State. Although this Mississippi State team is much improved from last year, it is important to know that they lost by 48 in 2016. Moreover, on the heels of a game where they came out flat against a bad UMass team, it’s tough to forecast them covering against the preeminent best team in the country. Alabama’s ability to stop the run, combined with how reliant Mississippi State is on designed runs for Nick Fitzgerald, adds up to a losing formula for the Bulldogs. The only thing that could possibly trip up this Alabama team is the amount of injuries they have sustained at the linebacker position. However, I would still pick Alabama with confidence.

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